Probability of Success | Interest Group
Home |
Events |
Leaders |
About SDP Interest Groups
An SDP Interest Group (SDP-IG) is a moderated group of SDP members who share an interest in a specific topic. The scope of the activities of an SDP-IG can range from occasional teleconferences sharing ideas between a few members to face to face conferences attracting a broader audience.
The insights developed by an SDP-IG will be made available to the broader SDP community in a suitable way. The SDP Knowledge Sharing Council helps support these SDP-IGs and participation is free. The only requirement is that you are a member of SDP.
About Probability of Success Interest Group (POSIG) - You are Invited!
Estimating the probability of success to guide investment decisions spans multiple industries and technologies. This is true whether a company is developing new molecular treatments for unmet medical needs, investing in renewable energy assets, or developing a next generation airliner. All of these examples involve assessing and forecasting the likelihood of success for complex technical projects with high risk of failure, large investments, and long development timelines. Providing decision makers with actionable, predictive assessments of potential success is critical for achieving desired outcomes.
POSIG meetings are intermittent; roughly once per quarter. The usual format is a moderated webinar or fireside chat with a speaker of interest. Topics have included:
- Superforecasting
- Metalogs
- Aggregation of expert opinions
- Semi-automations of probability assessments
- Calibration exercises
All SDP members received email announcements of upcoming POSIG webinars.
MODERATORS
- SHAUN COMFORT | is a Principle Scientific Enablement Director at Roche, leading innovation work supporting Pharmacovigilance. He is a Neurologist with 20+ years combined biopharma industry/regulatory experience. Dr. Comfort’s current work focuses on combining machine-learning models and decision analysis techniques to evaluate Drug-Adverse Event causality and predict Project/Phase Probability of Success.
- ERIC JOHNSON | supports drug development decision making at GSK, where he is helping the new DA practice to grow. Previously he had done DA work at BMS, and for consultancies. He is co-author of the Handbook of Decision analysis, and a Fellow of SDP.
If you want to be involved in planning webinars, please reach out to Shaun and/or Eric via email.
