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Eli Lilly PoS Estimation
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Reference Class Forecasting – What BioPharma can Learn from Probabilistic Forecasts in Energy
Probability of Success User Interest Group Meeting: Speakers Jay Andersen and Charles Persinger – Eli Lilly, Reidar Bratvold - University of Stavanger
October 18, 2022
Abstract: Estimating the probability of success to guide investment decisions spans multiple industries and technologies. This is true whether a company is developing new molecular treatments for unmet medical needs, investing in renewable energy assets, or developing a next generation airliner. All of these examples involve assessing and forecasting the likelihood of success for complex technical projects with high risk of failure, large investments, and long development time-lines. Providing decision makers with actionable, predictive assessments of potential success are critical for achieving desired outcomes.
This is our first cross-industry (Biopharma/Energy/Aerospace) interest group sponsored by the Society of Decision Professionals (SDP) on Probability of Success. This multidisciplinary group will meet quarterly in a non-competitive environment to present/discuss emerging ‘best practices’ and approaches to estimate PoS for various activities.
Our first session features 3 speakers from Pharma and Energy that present their approaches to providing plausible estimates of success to guide decision-making. The presentation cuts across disciplines and illustrates the value of combining Decision Analysis, Clear Thinking, and Data Science to solve real world problems.