Knowledge Content Library

Simplifying and Standardizing Probability of Success Assessments

David Matheson, SmartOrg, Inc.
June 05, 2024 (SDP Invited Talk)

Abstract: Probability of success assessments are notoriously difficult and subject to bias. While intensive processes can improve the situation significantly, the level of effort to accomplish credible and comparable probabilities is often not worth the benefits better estimation, for many situations there isn’t the time, and sometimes the most important uncertainties fall outside of the process. Work in the fast-moving field of innovation has resulted in the Maturity Matrix, a relatively simple way to assess and communicate probability of success as standard work. We’ve found this lighter-weight method does an excellent job in making sure all sources of uncertainty get communicated and quantified, and often reveals major disconnects in expectations over the level of risk in a project. Further, the maturity matrix provides practical guidelines for activities that would increase the probability of success, so serves as both a management tool and an assessment framework.

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Keywords: Analysis anamod, Probability probass, Risk riskanal, Scenario scenanal,